Research
Method notes, calibration results, and the reasoning behind the design decisions. Including the ones that have not worked yet.
A campaign expires, the deposit base leaves, and the pool that read as $500M clears at a fraction of it.
“One correct call with a timestamp is worth more than a year of quiet accuracy.” – Cleaton whitepaper, Phase 1
A campaign expires, the deposit base leaves, and the pool that read as $500M clears at a fraction of it.
“One correct call with a timestamp is worth more than a year of quiet accuracy.” – Cleaton whitepaper, Phase 1
Explore the method
The latest notes
Why confidence is conformal, not a model probability.
Jul 14, 2026
Reward elasticity: separating rented liquidity from owned.
Jul 8, 2026
Permissionless checkpointing, and why the attester must not be the only witness.
Mar 4, 2026
Reflexivity: what happens when a durability signal causes the outflow it predicts.
Jan 15, 2026
Worked examples
“There is no version of this system that is both widely adopted and non-reflexive. The honest position is that Cleaton makes a trade.”