Price how long
the liquidity lasts.
One primitive: a signed horizon with a calibrated confidence. Every surface below is a different way of branching on those four values.
Read every horizon.
Gate every allocation.
Contracts read a horizon at allocation time, agents query it before committing capital, and hooks act on it when it moves.
Refuse the allocation before the campaign ends, not after.
A joint survival function across the whole book, so twelve positions funded by one treasury read as three bets, not twelve.
TVL discounted by expected persistence. A $500M pool on a nine-day horizon reports $35M.
One modifier that rejects an allocation when the horizon falls below the lock period the strategy requires.
TVL tells you how much.
A horizon tells you how long.
TVL
CLEATON HORIZON
Reports a level. Says nothing about how long that level holds.
States a horizon in days, with a coverage guarantee attached.
Identical for a subsidised pool and one that grew on its own.
Prices campaign expiry, cohort tenure, and depositor concentration.
Revealed as wrong only once the exit queue has already formed.
Falsifiable in advance, bonded, and scored in public either way.
"A metric Cleaton alone can compute is a metric Cleaton can shade."
All metrics are computed from the public attestation record, so any third party can recompute them independently.
Section 10.1
Published metrics
Compute a horizon,
the same way every day.
Public state
Public state
TVL and DEX volume from aggregators, campaign terms and expiry from incentive trackers, raw pool events from block explorers.
Estimate
Survival ensemble
Cox proportional hazards, gradient-boosted survival trees, and a cohort simulation, combined by inverse-variance weighting.
Act
Publish
Conformal calibration sets the confidence. The attestation is signed, committed, and scored against the outcome.
Reads only state that is already public
DefiLlama
TVL, DEX volume, and stablecoin supply across chains. The descriptive baseline every horizon is measured against.
Base
Campaign terms, emission rates, and expiry dates. The strongest single scheduled shock in the model.
Merkl
Raw deposit and withdrawal events, used to estimate cohort tenure and depositor concentration.
Foundry
RPC access for canonical accounting reads and time-weighted liquidity sampling.
Merkl
Campaigns, emissions, and decay schedules, normalised into typed records with a schema check.
Alchemy
Registry, bond vault, and challenge contracts. Verification costs roughly 30k gas.
EIP-712
Typed structured data, so any contract can recover the attester and check freshness without an oracle call.
Merkl
Prepaid balance or x402 per-call settlement for freshly computed attestations.
Webhooks
Threshold-crossing callbacks on horizon, confidence, and flags, fired the moment they move.
Every covered pool, scored in public.
Durability attestation for autonomous capital. Read the horizon before the capital moves, not after.