Blog
Notes from building a durability oracle
Everything here is drawn from the whitepaper and argued in more depth there. The limitations get their own posts, because a system whose entire claim is a public record cannot be selective about what it publishes.
Two pools, one number
A $500M pool held together by a thirty-day campaign and a $500M pool that grew on its own read identically to every contract on chain. That was survivable while humans allocated.
Read →- Method8 min
Measuring how much of a pool is rented
Reward elasticity is the one quantity that separates deposits that stay from deposits that are being paid to sit still — and it is not symmetric.
Whitepaper §3.2 - Method8 min
Why we do not publish the model's probability
A survival model emits a number between zero and one. Publishing it as confidence would be a promise the system cannot keep.
Whitepaper §5 - Protocol9 min
Proving a breach without a dispute layer
Every oracle dispute mechanism that has been tried converts a measurement question into a political one. Cleaton has no arbitrator, no vote, and no challenge window.
Whitepaper §6–§8 - Limits6 min
When the forecast becomes the instruction
A widely read four-day horizon may cause the outflow it predicts. No bonding mechanism addresses this, and we are not going to pretend one does.
Whitepaper §13.4 - Method7 min
Discounting TVL by how long it lasts
One formula turns a horizon into a number anyone can read on a chart: $500M at nine days is $35M of durable liquidity.
Whitepaper §10